By now, people are quite aware that oil prices are going up and up and up (see http://www.oilnergy.com if you need convincing, especially the "Brent Crude" section for the last year and last 20 years). What follows are some thoughts on the fact that as of May 21, lots of Peak Oil Denialists finally woke up and smelled the empty gas can. And also some thoughts for those well meaning folks who want to do something about Global Warming problem (which has not gone away, even though it is not in the headlines much these days) and related items like Global Meltdown (of Greenland's and Antarctica's icesheets). And who are bound to get frustrated, because no one seems to be paying attention on that right now - instead, the focus is on those higher oil products prices.....
I'm sure that this suggestion has crossed a few enviro-minds, but here goes anyway. And it seems that Global Warming/Global Meltdown won't really get back into the headlines for a while, since Hurricane max season won't be here until August, and peak icesheet/glacier/icepack meltdown/breakup won't hit until August/September, along with peak Western USA fire season. As for tornado season....too limited in scope, unless the tornadoes have paid a visit to a community near you.. Thus, global climate change won't get the attention it deserves for some time, and it will have to do battle with the US elections, IraqNam and other assorted news items. Besides, the global climate change story has a long time span to it, much too long for current American ....tastes.
In fact, global climate change right now is a bit like Peak Oil was for the period of 1998 (when it was "announced" in a Scientific American article) until 2007....happening, but just a bit too subtle, to grab the attention of most Americans - research has shown that the "attention span" of Americans for such concepts/stories/news items is about 2 years maximum (see http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2243). However, after being "dormant" for all these years, the initial manifestation of Peak Oil - higher oil and oil products prices - has gotten peoples attention where it is likely to be attended to - in the pocketbook. Furthermore, most people don't think that oil prices are likely to recede in the near future...a view shared by the oil futures markets. In effect, in the Court of Public Opinion, Peak Oil has arrived. And it is not likely to go away, because the effects of the doubling of oil prices in one year are going to ripple through our economy for some time, with all kinds of unkind consequences. What's more, most people see no reason why oil prices will not continue to rise, though perhaps not at the 100%/year level which has recently occurred (was $65/bbl in May of 2007, now > $130/bbl in May of 2008), at least for too many years (but maybe for the next year).
Anyway, it turns out that many of the solutions (but not ALL) for Peak Oil are also the solutions to Global Warming/Global Climate Change/Global Meltdown. Thus, it is quite possible to achieve the solutions for GW/GCC/GM without even acknowledging that GW/GCC/GM is that big of a problem, or more importantly that IMMEDIATE of a problem. After all, James Hansen has said that we have about 10 years to correct our ways before things get out of control, climate wise. And that is about 5 "attention span" time periods. It is also 20 "Freidman Units", but that is another related story
...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_(unit).
Thus, who can be against fuel efficiency when gasoline is now $4/gallon, and possibly $8/gallon by next year, if the last 12 months are replicated, oil price wise. And when natural gas prices start getting tugged upwards by high oil prices, who can be against better home insulation, more efficient furnaces, and even those controversial wind turbines? Those who are will be stripped of their credibility really fast. Who knows, maybe electrically powered mass transit, and even passenger rail for "short haul" routes of ~ 400 miles (the 1 hour plane ride) may make a comeback. That would be nice.....
Furthermore, most people understand that the only way to lower and/or mitigate the higher unit cost of gasoline and diesel is to use less gasoline and diesel, and/or use it more efficiently. Not many are happy about this twist of fate...but, them's the breaks..........
Where it gets tricky is with nukes and coal, even though those are generally concerned with electricity, and electricity still only plays a minor role in the transportation of goods and people in this country. Installing more nukes and coal burners will do little to drop our oil consumption, and thus oil prices. Besides, increasing oil prices are also causing coal prices to rise significantly, even though the reasons for that in the U.S. are complicated. And wind turbines can replace coal and nuke derived electricity, so there is no NEED for coal burners or nukes, especially if proper accounting of the true costs of new nukes and coal burners is used, such as computing the cost of CO2 pollution, or pricing the risk of nukes is done via insurance costs.
Of course, there will soon be a big push for coal based "Sin-Fuels", but that will just raise coal demand, which will raise coal prices, and the resulting Sin-Fuels will still be priced based on the going rates for petroleum based fuels. Thus, Sinfuels will not lower the price of diesel and gasoline, though perhaps they will mitigate the price rises a bit. Furthermore, these Sinfuel plants (as opposed to biomass derived "Syn-Fuels" - note the spelling) are going to be dreadfully expensive, in a time when massive capital expenditures will be needed for replacements of obsolete fossil fuel electricity production facilities, or for passenger rail lines/mass transit systems, and there will only be limited monies for these projects. Thus, coal based Sinfuels will be competing with wind turbines and mass transit systems, which will raise the cost of capital, especially for capital intensive items. And apparently, the Sinfuels can be undercut by many biomass fuels, such as Ethanol, biodiesel and CO2 reduction via renewable electricity, at least in some instances.
Anyway, some energy fuels will always come in handy, and will be needed. But the real action/most bang for the buck with respect to a cure for Peak Oil induced higher oil costs will come via efficiency in the use of fuels, especially better mileage and better synergy between work place and home, as well as more mass transit. We need to focus on dropping our gasoline consumption from the current 9.6 million barrels per day to less than 2.4 million barrels per day, a tall order, but one which will allow the combination of US produced crude and US made biofuels to provide for our liquid fuel needs. This involves a 50% improvement in average mileage (thus, matching Western Europe's vehicle mileage) combined with a 50% reduction in the number of (liquid fuel powered) vehicle miles traveled. It's all very doable, especially as there is no viable alternative. And even that will require a lot of production of "energy fuels", whether from plants or from hydrogen (produced from renewable energy and water) reduction of by-product CO2 from crop to ethanol/butanol facilities.
Anyway, food for thought. The solution to the Global Warming disaster in the making can be accomplished via a concentration on the economic challenges brought on by Peak Oil, especially if coal burners and nukes as electricity sources are generally avoided. So that's the good news.
The not so good news is that there are other "cures" for Peak Oil which will either make the Global Warming far worse than is even currently contemplated (and those are not nice scenarios), or do little to stop the proverbial lemming drive towards the edge of the cliff. And some routes will suck down so much capital that there will be no room for things like mass transit and wind turbines/pumped hydro electrical energy storage/grid enhancements. But at least we are probably not contemplating the use of the Army to go and conquer foreign lands (Canada anyone?) that have oil underneath them. Perhaps the IraqNam FUBAR has taught enough Americans that that course of action is quite a waste of time, not to mention treasure, and blood.