I've known Alan Drake from The Oil Drum for a while now and he has mentioned off and on that he has been working on a "T21 model".
We were talking again late last week and he filled me in a bit more about the qualifications and reputation of those at the Millennium Institute, so much so that I spent some time reviewing their site, I downloaded the North American model, and I'm starting to play with it.
I'm beginning to get the picture - if we do one of these I think it'll quantify and validate our various concepts at a very high level.
Alan is specifically interested in rail electrification and is working on a model with the MI folks using funding from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. That last bit got my attention - 600 of the very top experts in energy policy think enough of this to put up the organization's money to get the job done.
So what is this T21 thing, anyway? I think the following graphic from their site sums up the whole concept nicely:
The model contains 37 different stand alone modules that encapsulate the various behavior of different parts of 18 sectors: 6 social sectors, 6 economic sectors, and 6 environmental sectors. We could plug in information on wind energy, rail right of way construction of electric transmission corridors, wind driven ammonia from both Haber Bosch as well as SSAS, and ammonia as a fuel in farm vehicles, then start getting some long term predictions of the economic and environmental effects which would be viewed as valid by policy makers at the federal level. Like it or not we have to drive federal policy as well as technology and investment and this seems to be a good way for a bunch of analytical folks, such as congregate here, to get get that done.
You can read the whole introduction to the T21 model here but I think this pretty much sums it up nicely:
Threshold 21 (T21) is a dynamic simulation tool designed to support comprehensive, integrated long-term national development planning. T21 supports comparative analysis of different policy options, and helps users to identify the set of policies that tend to lead towards a desired goal. This insight into how different indicators of development interact with one another to produce an outcome deepens users understanding of development challenges.
So ... are we going to go out and raise the $500,000 or so required to put this thing into motion? I'm highly inclined to do so, Dr. Wang and Dr. Holbrook each have some time to dedicate to getting the inputs right, and I've not yet heard back from everyone else as to their interest level. I suspect, given Alan's strong recommendation with the backing of ASPO, that this is going to be a good move for us.