We have seen discrete regions, such as the US Lower 48, peak and then show a gradual decline in production. However, once oil exporting regions peak and decline, the resulting net export declines have tended to be very sharp.
The Export Land Model (or ELM) is a simple mathematical model, proposed by petroleum geologist Jeffrey J. Brown, which assumes that a region--producing two million barrels per day (mbpd), consuming one mbpd and exporting one mbpd--peaks and then shows a -5%/year production decline rate, with a +2.5%/year rate of increase in consumption. This results in an overall net export decline of close to -30%/year, hitting zero net exports in nine years. The UK and Indonesia showed similar declines, hitting zero net exports in seven years and eight years respectively.
Current data suggest that world crude oil production may have peaked in 2005, and we have seen two years of slow declines in crude production, based on EIA data. However, the available data indicate that the top five net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE, accounting for about half of current world net oil exports--are on track to approach zero net oil exports around 2031.
The expectation of a bidding war between importing countries for rapidly declining net oil exports is why we must build wind driven ammonia for fertilizer and fuel as soon as possible; we're energy hogs and we're going to be priced out of that market.
The full details of the Export Land Model were first aired on The Oil Drum in this post by Brown himself.